Прогнозы экспертов на 2013 год для Узбекистана, Таджикистана и Казахстана

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Центральная Азия  

Судьбы Центральной Азии продолжают занимать мировых экспертов. Внимание к региону приковано традиционно в связи с конфликтом в Афганистане. Однако никак не в меньшей степени экспертов из самых разных стран, в том числе стран Запада, занимают перспективы бывших советских среднеазиатских республик.

Что же сулят республикам Центральной Азии прогнозы западных экспертов?

Центральная Азия глазами «американского национального интереса»

Американское издание «The National Interest» накануне Нового года опубликовало статью Илана Гринберга «Центральной Азии предстоит трудный год». В ней журналист анализирует ситуацию в постсоветских республиках Центральной Азии и пытается прогнозировать их ближайшее будущее. Несмотря на все отличия политических режимов в этих странах, жизнь в них имеет ряд общих черт:

– наиболее значимые «организованные претенденты на влияние в регионе» действуют за чертой закона, по мнению Гринберга. К таковым претендентам журналист относит наркокартели, «провинциальных воротил и нечистоплотные деловые элиты»;

– экономики стран основаны на сырьевых отраслях, что приводит к «чрезмерной концентрации богатства и порождает кумовство»

– энергетический и продовольственный дефицит вследствие ухудшающегося состояния окружающей среды и политических трудностей

– вследствие межэтнических конфликтов, активизации исламских фундаменталистов и националистов, роста межгосударственной напряжённости не исключены гражданские войны и «насильственные смены власти снизу».

Исходя из этого, Гринберг прогнозирует следующие угрозы стабильности в регионе:

Киргизия: слабое руководство формально парламентской страны может оказаться неспособным предотвратить потенциальные кровавые беспорядки на юге страны. Центральная власть, очевидно, не в состоянии препятствовать местным властям на юге в раздувании враждебности по отношению к остающимся там узбекам. Инвесторы чувствуют себя всё более ненадёжно в атмосфере надвигающихся этнических чисток, которые представляются журналисту неизбежными, а также раскола страны, как возможного результата этих чисток

Таджикистан: угроза региональных восстаний – постоянная угроза политическому единству страны; это ярко продемонстрировали недельные бои с местным ополчением на востоке после устранения правительственными войсками местного воротилы, которого правительство называло контрабандистом. Таджикистандо сих пор не восстановился после гражданской войны девяностых годов вследствие исламистской угрозы и напряжённых отношений с соседями. Вывод войск из Афганистана снижает шансы Таджикистана на социальную и политическую стабильность.

Казахстан: кровопролитие в западном Жанаозене не прошло даром. К протестам рабочих добавляется недовольство элит в связи с «пожизненным» статусом президентства Нурсултана Назарбаева. Подавление гражданского общества не гарантирует от внутриэлитных столкновений.

Туркменистан: в стране отмечаются редкие ранее публичные протесты против правительственной политики. Коррупция, неустойчивы отношения со странами-соседями, разнородность политического класса делают рациональное управление страной практически невозможным. В сочетании с тридцатипроцентным уровнем бедности и шестидесятипроцентной безработицей эти факторы могут дать разрушительный эффект.

Гринберг ничем не заканчивает свою статью, однако перед тем, как перечислять проблемы конкретных стран, делает оговорку: возможно, что в регионе в течение всего года сохранится статус-кво, несмотря на все негативные тенденции. «Центральная Азия может стремиться к переменам, но постоянно возвращается к своей советской норме», пишет журналист, при єтом обращая внимание на то, что миссия Международного валютного фонда (МВФ) и официальные органы Узбекистана обсудили развитие событий в экономике за последний период. Как заявило посольство Узбекистана в Душанбе, стороны обменялись мнениями о перспективах на ближайший и среднесрочный период, а также о влиянии, которое замедление мирового экономического роста оказывает на экономику республики, сообщает "Азия Плюс".

В заявлении МВФ по завершению работы миссии отмечается, что "экономика Узбекистана продолжает расти быстрыми темпами".

По текущему официальному курсу, доллар в Узбекистане стоит 1975 сум (на "черном рынке" его цена гораздо выше – порядка 2700). Важно отметить, что сам курс доллара в настоящее время на мировых биржевых площадках... продолжает падать, прежде всего, к швейцарскому франку, английскому фунту стерлингу, что означает, что узбекский сум девальвирует вдвойне больше, чем это представляют сами узбеки.

В чём прав и в чём неправ американский журналист? – мнение экспертов

В том, что касается крайней нестабильности региона, с Гринбергом трудно не согласиться, - утверждает наш эксперт. Действительно, и внутренние, и внешние факторы не позволяют делать оптимистические прогнозы в отношении центральноазиатских республик. Однако к журналисту возникает и ряд вопросов:

– почему в его более или менее детальном прогнозе никак не участвует Узбекистан? За всю статью он упомянут всего лишь один раз: в связи с Таджикистаном, когда Гринберг указывает на «плохие отношения с соседями» последнего, причём худшими называет как раз отношения с Узбекистаном. И всё. Даже в начале статьи, когда Гринберг перечисляет типы политических режимов – мол, в Казахстане и Туркмении «откровенная диктатура», в Киргизии «фасадная демократия», а об Узбекистане – ни слова. Таджикистан в этом конкретном месте тоже не упомянут, но зато далее ему посвящён целый «подраздел» рассуждений журналиста. Возникает ощущение, что Узбекистан к этому «сверхпроблемному» региону и отношения-то не имеет. Вряд ли это случайность: США, как и любое государство, вынуждены ставить своё внешнеполитическое поведение в зависимость от интересов. Предстоящий вывод войск и вооружений должен пройти через Узбекистан, сотрудничество с которым чрезвычайно важно на современном этапе; поэтому западные страны «закрывают глаза» на многое из происходящего в этой республике. Очевидно, что США делают ставку на Узбекистан как на основного игрока в регионе, в том числе и с военной точки зрения. Учитывая это, можно и «забыть» упомянуть Узбекистан среди «откровенных диктатур» (хотя тамошний политический режим куда больше соответствует этому определению, нежели казахстанский), и не прогнозировать ему «землетрясение и бурю с дождём» по примеру Карлсона, который живёт на крыше;

– по выстроенной журналистом картине Туркменистан, Киргизстан, Таджикистан и Казахстан находятся едва ли не в равной по негативу ситуации. Однако очевидно, что экономическое положение Казахстана и, например, Таджикистана несравнимо: Казахстан заметно обгоняет другие постсоветские республики региона в экономическом развитии, пусть и несравнимом с развитием европейских государств или России. Основательно отличается и внутриполитическая стабильность Таджикистана и Туркмении: если первый действительно представляет собой нечто вроде «племенной федерации», то Туркменистан даже после смерти Ниязова – это единое и достаточно крепкое государство. Гринбергу может не нравиться диктатура, но зачем отрицать очевидную, пусть и относительную устойчивость такого политического режима? С учётом предыдущего вопроса по Узбекистану можно ещё больше усомниться в объективности автора статьи;

– своей фразой «Центральная Азия может стремиться к переменам, но постоянно возвращается к своей советской норме» Илан Гринберг демонстрирует либо некомпетентность, либо предвзятость. Скорее второе, поскольку подозревать специалиста Центра имени Вильсона в некомпетентности нет оснований. Предвзятость же проявляется в том, что ничего из тех действительно существующих проблем, которые описывает Гринберг в своей статье, просто не было возможным в советское время. Да, как говорится, «дорогой ценой», в том числе и благодаря введению советских войск в Афганистан – однако эффект этого введения был совершенно очевидным. Советская Центральная Азия была стабильным и безопасным регионом – в отличие от современности. Это касается всех стран региона, в том числе и Узбекистана, который на Новый год продемонстрировал, чем диктатура Каримова отличается от диктатуры Сталина. Ни о каких этнических чистках или региональных восстаниях в советское время речи идти не могло, поэтому совершенно непонятно, о какой «советской норме» пишет Гринберг.

Так или иначе, но прогноз на 2013 год для Центральной Азии может быть каким угодно, но только не «спокойным». Ни предстоящий вывод коалиционных войск из Афганистана, ни надвигающаяся смена власти в Узбекистане, ни внутренние и внешние конфликты остальных стран региона не позволяют рассчитывать на стабильность.

Источник - Онлайн-журнал «Биржевой лидер»

http://www.profi-forex.org/novosti-mira/novosti-sng/uzbekistan/entry1008149340.html


Datum: 01.02.2013
Hinzugefügt: ava  v3704207
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Kommentare
[-]
 Неделько Г.Б. | 04.04.2013, 15:34 #
Сегодня независимые страны Средней Азии стали тем регионом мира, в котором столкнулись экономические и политические интересы ведущих мировых держав – России, Китая и США. Каждая из этих стран желает вовлечь Узбекистан, Туркменистан, Таджикистан и Киргизию в орбиту своей внешней политики с тем, чтобы использовать как преимущества их географического положения, так и их людские и природные ресурсы, а также возможности для расширения торговли с ними и вложения своих капиталов. Торг идет не шуточный! Кто одержит в нем победу, пока еще не ясно.
 Киллирчук | 16.04.2013, 20:17 #
Главное продать себя подороже, а кому-им все равно. Они как жили на окраине, так окраиной и останутся.
 Фомкин | 20.04.2013, 17:55 #
Эти страны очень богаты природными ресурсами, если они правильно распорядятся ими, будут не беднее Эмиратов.
 Никитка | 02.05.2013, 17:57 #
Прогнозы экспертов на 2013 год для Узбекистана, Таджикистана и Казахстана
 Никитка | 02.05.2013, 18:44 #
Прогнозы экспертов на 2013 год для Узбекистана, Таджикистана и Казахстана не всегда соответствуют действительности. Эти страны получили мощный экономический импульс развития от СССР, но политическая система в этих странах различная. И в настоящий момент преобладает загадка, что будет дальше.
 Калыванов Кирил | 10.05.2013, 14:21 #
Главное этим странам не допустить у себя гражданских войн. Только твердая политика и уверенное руководство смогут вывести эти страны в одних из лидеров. А природных рессурсов им для этого вполне хватает.
 Ramirov Garik | 14.05.2013, 16:28 #
Мне кажется, что эти страны должны объединиться и создать свой Союз, уж очень много общего у них.
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